Freight Barometer

The economy, measured by what moves
Freight cycle monitor Updated Jul 20, 2026
The freight signal

Market tightening

Truck tonnage is up 3.4% from a year ago; shipment volumes are down 4.1%; truckload pricing has firmed over the past three months.

Barometer reading
Freight barometer A semicircular gauge from contracting on the left through neutral to expanding on the right, with the needle at the current reading. Neutral Contracting Expanding +0.14
What is driving it
Truck tonnage, year over year +3.4%
Cass shipments, year over year -4.1%
Freight TSI, year over year +1.4%
Truckload PPI, year over year +21.5%
Truckload PPI, three-month change +7.0%
Truck tonnage 117.7 ▲ +3.4% yr/yr as of 2026-04-01
Cass shipments 1.01 ▼ -4.1% yr/yr as of 2026-06-01
Truckload price 204.6 ▲ +21.5% yr/yr as of 2026-06-01
Diesel, national $4.796 ▲ +4.8% wk/wk as of 2026-07-13
What is moving

Volumes

The quantity of freight changing hands. Tonnage and shipment counts turn months before broad output does, which is what makes them worth watching.

Truck tonnage

117.7

ATA Truck Tonnage Index, seasonally adjusted. +3.4% yr/yr

Cass shipments vs expenditures

1.01

When expenditures climb while shipments soften, the cost of moving each load is rising.

Shipments Expenditures

Rail carloads & intermodal

1,003,578

Intermodal tracks imported goods moving inland; carloads track bulk industry.

Carloads Intermodal

Freight TSI

139.6

The government's combined index of for-hire freight across all modes, indexed to 2000 = 100.

What it costs to ship

Rates & cost

The official price of moving freight, split into the two halves of the long-haul market: full truckloads and less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments that share a trailer. Both come straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and update every month.

Trucking price trends

Jun 2026

Change in the producer price index for each trucking segment over one month, three months, and one year. These indexes include fuel surcharges, so they firm when diesel is high.

Segment 1mo3mo1yr
Truckload (TL) +0.3% +7.0% +21.5%
Less-than-truckload (LTL) -1.3% +10.9% +18.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, via FRED. Updates monthly.

Truckload price index

204.6

Producer price index for the long-distance trucking market. Truckload is the contract market's broad price gauge; LTL covers shared-trailer freight.

Truckload LTL
The cost of energy

Diesel

Fuel is the largest variable cost a carrier carries. Diesel feeds straight into rates through fuel surcharges, so it sets the floor under the whole market.

On-highway diesel, national average

$4.796

+4.8% wk/wk, +27.6% yr/yr. Updated weekly by the EIA.

By region (PADD)

Fuel surcharge calculator

Estimate the per-mile fuel surcharge from today's diesel price.

Surcharge n/a
Formula: (diesel price minus peg) divided by miles per gallon. A common starting peg is $1.25 with the truck averaging 6 mpg.
Field guide

How to read freight as an economic signal

Freight is one of the earliest reads on the real economy. Goods get booked, moved, and paid for before they show up in sales, earnings, or GDP.

Why freight leads

A retailer orders before it sells; a factory ships parts before it builds. Because freight sits at the front of that chain, a sustained turn in tonnage or shipment counts tends to show up months ahead of the headline numbers. Watching it is like watching the economy's order book rather than its receipts.

The Cass Freight Index

Cass Information Systems processes a large share of the freight invoices in North America. Its shipments index counts how many loads moved; its expenditures index sums what shippers paid. When expenditures rise faster than shipments, the price per load is climbing, a sign capacity is tightening.

Spot versus contract

Contract rates are locked in for months; spot rates are booked load by load. In a soft market spot trades well below contract. As freight tightens, spot rises first and closes the gap, then pushes above contract. That crossover is the clearest early sign carriers are regaining pricing power.

Truck tonnage

Trucks move the large majority of domestic freight by value, so the tonnage index is a broad proxy for goods activity. It is seasonally adjusted, so a move up or down reflects real change rather than the calendar. Read it alongside rates: rising tonnage with rising rates is genuine strength.

Diesel and surcharges

Fuel is a carrier's biggest variable cost. Most freight contracts add a fuel surcharge pegged to the EIA's weekly diesel average, so when diesel moves, freight bills move within days. It is the fastest mechanical link between energy markets and the cost of everything that ships.

How the signal is built

The headline reading blends year-over-year truck tonnage, Cass shipments, and the freight services index with the truckload price trend and the behaviour of spot rates. Volume carries the cycle; rates confirm the turn. No single series moves the needle on its own, which keeps the signal from chasing noise.